The Social Scenario Research Project funded by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) promotes social scenario research to envision a desirable society and to show pathways, options, and strategies to realize a carbon neutral society. The goal is to contribute to the realization of a carbon neutral society based on science and technology, with sustainable economic and social development in Japan. Based on the R&D strategy formulated by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), JST established the Center for Low Carbon Society Strategy (LCS) in December 2009. The importance of this research became even greater with the declaration of the governmental goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. . In April 2023, based on the results of the LCS research, this research project was launched with the aim of further developing social scenario research and contributing to society by incorporating the knowledge of a wide range of researchers, including those in the humanities and social sciences, and developing research personnel.
As part of our research agenda, we are engaged in research on “Social Scenarios Based on Comprehensive Knowledge for Accelerating the Transition to a Carbon Neutral Society”. Along with quantitative and qualitative analyses of technological and cost projections of decarbonization technologies and the study of scenarios for their introduction into society, we are conducting research to formulate strategies and design social systems that contribute to the creation of new technologies to accelerate the realization of a carbon neutral society. We disseminate our results and foster their implementation in society.
Greetings from the President
PI：Masakazu SUGIYAMA （Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology The University Tokyo Director/Professor）
Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions is a challenge shared by all humankind in order to curb the progression of global climate change. Social scenarios for achieving net-zero emissions are being studied around the world, and scenarios are being presented in various countries to show what society and energy systems will look like in 2050. These scenarios are not predictions of the future, but rather examples of what society should be like in the future. Therefore, there are multiple scenarios for the same country, reflecting peoples’ future aspirations and values. Even if the direction in which a country is headed is the same, the assumptions behind the scenarios may lead to very different scenarios. We need to understand the meaning and diversity of these scenarios, recognize the gap between the present and the future as indicated by the scenarios, and build a transition strategy to realize a desirable society. However, it is difficult to achieve carbon neutrality only with technologies that can be implemented in society at this stage, and developing technologies such as green hydrogen and carbon recycling will be indispensable. In addition, digital transformation (DX) is expected to contribute to energy conservation, but at the same time, there are concerns that the increase in computing power due to the spread and expansion of artificial intelligence will lead to a marked increase in electricity demand. It is necessary to incorporate experts into the team and create scenarios that incorporate the outlook for technological progress toward 2050, but even so, it is inevitable that the scenarios will include a range derived from the uncertainty of technological progress. In addition, the environment around us is changing rapidly, with the emergence of new societal values that emphasize wellbeing, such as diversity and inclusion. The situation in the Ukraine and the Middle East, and the new geopolitical relationship between the United States and China could have a very significant impact on the achievement of carbon neutrality. It is also necessary to incorporate these changes in our environment into scenarios in a comprehensive and intelligent manner. In addition, synergies and trade-offs between the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and carbon neutrality have emerged in recent years, and further analysis of these synergies and trade-offs is needed.
In this project, experts from various fields, such as social vision, energy saving and decarbonization technologies, system analysis and modeling, will team up to build a strategy for social scenarios based on comprehensive knowledge in order to bring about a new trend in scenario research that faces the various issues described so far. While making effective use of the Center’s assets, we aim to present a roadmap to a bright and prosperous carbon-neutral society in Japan in 2050, and contribute to the formulation of policies and strategies to realize this goal.
What is a Scenario?
１．Overview of the research project
This research project will develop a quantitative evaluation system based on multiple qualitative scenarios/narratives (storylines) and an integrated evaluation model, that depict a path toward a bright and prosperous future vision of a carbon-neutral society. This research consists of four teams: the Technology Scenario Evaluation Group, the Quantitative Scenario Analysis Group, the Social Scenario Dialogue Group, and the Integrated Scenario Development Group, in addition to the Overall Management Group. The goal is to develop scenarios based on comprehensive knowledge through workshops and other activities. This will accelerate transition strategies and contribute to the realization of a carbon-neutral society in Japan.
2.1 Vision of the society to be achieved
One of the objectives and goals of the social scenario study for the realization of a low-carbon society is to present a vision of a bright and prosperous carbon-neutral society in 2050. A carbon neutral society that minimizes the consumption of oil and coal, which are generally the source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and keeps the atmospheric CO2 concentration constant through forests and artificial CO2 fixation and conversion, will require changes in the composition of power sources and major reorganization of industrial structures, and there are concerns that this may, to some degree, stagnate economic activities and restrict personal life activities, due to for example higher utility costs.
This project aims to create a vision of a society in 2050 that is both a “bright and prosperous society” in which Japan leads the world in the development of science and technology, creates and develops new industries, and leads to national prosperity and economic growth, and a “carbon-neutral society” that is in harmony with the global environment.
2.2 Quantitative Evaluation System
General equilibrium model analysis and mathematical linear optimization calculations are used to evaluate and analyze the future state of society. This is to quantify the cost performance of goods, devices, equipment, and systems based on scientific evidence, and to simulate the amount of market introduction based on the balance of supply and demand in the market. More precise forecasting requires more elaborate figures such as cost/performance calculations based on scientific evidence, product life, specifications, and manufacturing conditions.
In this project, we are particularly interested in the core technologies for CO2 reduction: hydrogen (electrolysis production, storage, transportation, and power generation), carbon capture and storage (CCS), carbon capture, storage, and utilization (CCUS : Carbon dioxide capture, utilization, and storage), and direct atmospheric CO2 reduction technologies . CCS, CCUS, DAC (Direct Air Capture) and storage batteries are core technologies that we evaluate quantitatively (TEA: Techno-Economic Analysis) using cost engineering methods. We are able to conduct precise Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of products, taking into account recycling and reuse.
2.3 Scenario Development Based on Integrated Knowledge and Accelerated Transition Strategy Proposal Mechanism
While each group conducts in-depth research and development independently on its own theme, the groups organically collaborate with each other to create synergy effects.
We have established a system that enables us to quickly propose policies and technology strategies, from cost analysis at the material level through cost engineering to model quantitative analysis, and then through scenario building to outreach to stakeholders. In addition, by incorporating the latest data and information provided by each group, the shared scenarios are highly robust. Each group sets and promotes its own objectives and goals, including human resource development.